Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.405008 23.492521 25.835641 28.691404 32.121825 36.169395 41.400612
2025-01-05 18.245157 21.043939 24.478007 29.129148 35.488598 44.273020 58.181401
2025-01-12 15.934428 19.102792 23.279803 29.480918 39.075197 54.778400 86.999641
2025-01-19 14.463420 17.936199 22.821602 30.747578 44.727983 72.839499 158.755477
2025-01-26 12.864983 16.315816 21.389403 30.163518 47.310964 88.797897 296.415150
2025-02-02 11.724605 15.165012 20.427099 30.088216 51.024430 113.810348 930.809810
2025-02-09 10.920653 14.389535 19.900358 30.644138 56.683026 159.657941 NaN
2025-02-16 10.152985 13.564638 19.143003 30.546493 60.941405 221.194371 NaN
2025-02-23 9.549457 12.922592 18.588860 30.716496 66.393637 341.159659 NaN
2025-03-02 9.048982 12.388008 18.137574 30.990877 72.792977 622.671346 NaN
2025-03-09 8.584507 11.863048 17.624267 30.985689 78.564073 1435.617508 NaN
2025-03-16 8.238723 11.501984 17.365691 31.541318 87.889913 40517.227467 NaN
2025-03-23 7.837800 11.038250 16.901139 31.608312 96.592594 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 7.491814 10.645093 16.537196 31.905546 108.554584 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 7.174383 10.277289 16.182533 32.167014 122.580079 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 6.966577 10.088116 16.177117 33.529873 152.961090 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 6.633006 9.643055 15.568119 32.785271 161.413596 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 6.371055 9.311213 15.169758 32.652186 180.013362 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 6.177315 9.091464 14.993692 33.258483 218.374417 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.958249 8.808145 14.640842 33.124872 247.657073 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.774290 8.578969 14.387298 33.305130 294.792307 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.610970 8.378298 14.178124 33.609673 364.029493 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.444990 8.161921 13.908956 33.596992 437.832687 NaN NaN